According to data from CoreLogic, home prices have increased over 20% in the past 12 months. With such a large increase in a short amount of time, you may be wondering what your home value could be worth in 10 years and whether this trend will continue. In short, that will all depend on your home’s characteristics, location, and how desirable it is to potential buyers. Keep reading for a more detailed explanation.
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How do I calculate the future value of my home?
Figuring out what your home could be worth in the years to come is actually quite simple. You just need to figure out 2 things: the current value of your property, and how much it’s expected to increase in value each year. You can use websites like Redfin, Trulia, or Zillow to get an idea of what your home is currently worth, and we’ll go into more detail later on how much homes typically go up in value each year.
Once you’ve got those 2 items figured out, you can plug in those numbers to our future home value estimator tool — simply enter your name and email into the form at the top of this page.
We’ll dive into this more down below, but as useful as online estimates can be, they should only be used as a rough estimate since they are unable to capture nuances of certain properties. For instance, they rarely consider things like whether your home had upgrades recently or a remodel completed, has better views, or is in a more desirable neighborhood. All of those are items that could very well impact your home’s true market value.
Use our Future Home Value Estimator spreadsheet!
We created a spreadsheet for you to help with calculating how much your home will be worth in future years. To use it for yourself, simply:
- Click the link below
- Go to File > Make a copy
- Then change cells to your current home value and expected growth rate
We highly recommend using this spreadsheet because you can easily calculate what your home is worth in 5, 10, 20, or 25 years from now. We made it very simple. Please email us if you’d like to make some changes!
How much do houses go up in value each year?
Now that you are equipped with the formula and have our spreadsheet opened (go do that now if you haven’t!), you are probably wondering how much home growth you should account for.
An article from SFGate states that the cost of buying a house, on average, has increased from 3.5% to 3.8% per year. It’s important to note that this is an average. Your local market may differ, and there will be some years when home prices go up significantly more and others where home values may even fall.
Figures pulled from CEIC Data for instance, show that between 2007 and 2012, houses, on the whole, showed a drop in value. On the other hand, home values in 2021 showed an increase upwards of 18%.
While you can use national averages to determine how much your specific home may go up in value, it’s best to use data from your specific state or county. This data is often publicly available from your local association of realtors. For example, those living in Texas can quickly search for the
“Texas Association of Realtors” to find the information that best applies to your location. That being said, data pulled from Smart Asset shows the cities that have exhibited the least and most appreciation since 1997:
- Cities in Texas, Colorado, and South Dakota took the top 5 spots with the most increase in values since 1997, increasing from 242% to 368%
- Cities in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois took the top 5 spots for the least amount of property value increase since 1997, increasing just 67% to 103%
Specific Home Characteristics
Features specific to your home greatly influence its current value. This will include the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, the size of the home, its layout and floor plan, and the material used in construction (such as whether your home has granite or quartz countertops). If you live in a homeowner’s association, amenities like a pool, tennis courts, or an on-site gym can also provide added value.
Other factors which can also impact your home value are added expenses like homeowner’s association dues or supplemental property taxes or other assessments. Added expenses such as these can negatively impact what buyers may be willing to pay.
Location
Lastly, the old saying “location, location, location” in real estate holds true. Your home’s location will determine which school district your children can attend, crime rates, and proximity to amenities like shopping and entertainment. If your home is located in an area with highly-rated school districts, it’s going to be viewed more favorably, and will have a tendency to attract more buyers willing to pay a premium to have access to good schools.
Similarly, properties in areas with lower crime rates and are close to amenities like shopping centers, movies, and entertainment are seen as more desirable and will attract buyers willing to pay more money for your home.
Economic Health
Your home value also comes down to a simple supply and demand equation. When many folks can afford to buy a home, it leads to more demand for housing, which can cause prices to go up. In a strong economy where unemployment rates are low and businesses are doing well financially, people have more money and are more willing and able to buy homes. When this happens, it creates a greater demand for housing, which translates into higher home values.
By contrast, if we are in a recession where unemployment rates are higher and businesses are struggling, there will be fewer folks able or willing to afford a high price tag for a house. With less demand, home values will either taper off or fall.
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How Do You Calculate a Property Value Increase?
There are a few ways to calculate the property value increase of your primary residence correctly. This can include actually listing your house or condo for sale, doing your own research to see what similar properties have sold for, or having a certified appraiser conduct some research to provide you with an opinion of value.
We’ll cover each of these methods and discuss the pros and cons of each.
List Your Property for Sale
If you’re looking to sell, perhaps one of the most accurate ways to determine how much your home value has gone up is to list it for sale, so make sure you get your home ready to sell! This will give you real data on what buyers are currently willing to pay for your home. If you do decide to list your home for sale, it’s recommended that you enlist the help of a local real estate agent. Oftentimes, they will do a comparative market analysis, seeing what similar homes have recently sold for. While only a starting point, it can be a useful tool to help estimate the current market value of your property.
Look at Comparable Home Sales
Another method to estimate the increase in your home value is to look at properties that have recently sold. You can use one of several of free online tools or a third-party website to find homes in the same neighborhood (typically within one mile) that have similar characteristics, like the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, and square footage. Some sites also use an automated valuation model, analyzing data from public records to provide a computerized estimate of the value of your home.
The idea here is that homes with similar characteristics as yours will appeal to the same type of buyer that would be interested in buying your home as well. Looking at recent sales will also be a better indicator of value, as opposed to a home that sold long ago when market conditions may have been different.
Have a Certified Appraiser Provide an Opinion of Value
Another way to get an accurate home value estimate is to have a certified appraiser provide you with an opinion of value. Appraisers will follow many of the same steps mentioned above, including researching comparable homes to see how they stack up to your home. While there are costs associated with doing this, having an appraisal completed will allow for someone to use their expertise to capture differences that a computerized mode might miss, such as street noise, views, the desirability of layout and floor plan, or recent renovations have any impact on what buyers may prefer in a new home.
One thing to keep in mind though is that an appraiser’s opinion of value is just that. It is only an opinion, and should only be used to confirm a small range of what the property is worth. Two appraisers could appraise the same house and arrive at a small difference in numbers, just like two buyers might not be willing to pay the same price for a home. However, having a professional appraisal completed will help provide you with an accurate home value estimate.
How much will property prices rise in 5 years?
Based on historical averages of 3.5% of home value growth per year, property prices will rise a total of about 18 to 20% in 5 years. The math is simple: 3.5% a year for 5 years, compounding annually. The key is to do the math as compounding because your home value will continue to build. Said another way, a 3.5% increase this year is less valuable than one next year since your home is worth less today than it is next year. Use our Future Home Value estimator to see more details.
How much will property prices rise in 20 years?
Based on historical national average data of 3.5% home value growth rates, property prices in the US for residential homes will almost double within 20 years! The reason prices will double at that rate is because of compounding growth. At a flat rate of 3.5% x 20 years, equals only 70% growth rate… but you must keep in mind that growth compounds annually. This means a 3.5% increase in 5 years is much larger than one today because your home has also increased in value! Use our Future Home Value estimator to see more details.
How much will property prices rise in 30 years?
Using 3.5% as our historical growth rate of residential homes in the US, we can see that property prices in 30 years from now will be more than 135% higher than they are today! This property appreciation is based on historical data and benefits from compounding growth. Use our Future Home Value estimator to see more details.
Considerations that affect the value of a home
While none of us have a crystal ball to know what home prices will look like in the future, many of the same criteria will help us get a good idea of where things might wind up. Specific home features, where it’s located, the health of the economy, and the available inventory of homes are all things that will impact the value of a house.
Here are a few more things to think about.
Use Past Trends to Predict the Future
Perhaps a very simplistic way to estimate how much your home value may increase is to take an average over the past 10 or 20 years, and then use that same average to project the next 10 or 20 years. You can then use a future home value calculator to quickly figure out what the value of your home could be. However, doing so could vastly overestimate or underestimate your home value as it does not take into account any other variables as we’ll continue discussing below.
Potential for Major Employment Hub
One example that could help property values increase more than the national average is if it becomes home to more employers. This could be as a result of a city or state’s policies and regulations that may make it more business-friendly with things like lower tax bills or other benefits. Adopting more business-friendly policies could make it more attractive for employers to relocate and make it their new headquarters, which could drive up demand for housing in the area, and therefore, the market value.
Is it in a New Community that will Continue to Develop?
Demand for newly formed communities of homes will typically be lower. However, as the housing community becomes more developed, it can start to appeal to a larger number of buyers, which will subsequently drive up demand and home prices. Consider whether the home is in a new community, if additional amenities will be built near the home, and whether it may create more jobs for folks living in the area.
Figuring Out Your Home Value in 10 Years
It can be difficult to assess your future home value accurately, but there are many time-tested indicators of what makes a house worth more. While there are some factors that are out of your control like the neighborhood in which the home is located and whether it is in a continuously developing community, there are also a number of things you can do to improve its value with a number of renovations and home improvements.
